News Stock Exchange
Are you interested in news? How very old school since now you can predict the future! This is possible thanks to websites like Newsfutures or Trendio that enable you to buy and sell options on events to come.
These are information or prediction markets.
They make the bet that we can predict the future rather well by encouraging a community to negotiate options linked to the realization of future events, which seems to work well according to James Surowiecki, the author of the bestseller The Wisdom of Crowds. No need for a representative sample when a diversified and decentralized group in which individuals act in complete independence generally is enough to obtain the best results. Statistically, when installing “collective thinking”, they are better then the experts.
Not convinced?
In your opinion what is the most reliable way for Hollywood majors to anticipate the success of their films?
Well, by looking at the film exchange on the Hollywood Stock Exchange, where a community sells and buys “futures”, which are negotiable options that are in the end exchanged for an underlying value (Box Office results after a few weeks for example).
To predict the election results? Take a look at the Iowa Electronic Market. During the last US Presidential Elections, it was revealed to be more reliable than other popularity polls.
It isn’t just a coincidence if Google, Yahoo or even HP have already used this sort of tool corporately to predict upcoming events such as product launches…
France 24 has reached 1.2M unique visitors in France according to a panel conducted by Nielsen in December 2006. Place your bets for January 07!
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